Joining the Boy Scouts!
I spent 7 years as a Scoutmaster where I tried to instill an attitude that the scouts in my troop planned for the best, prepared for the worst, & tried with every ounce of energy to succeed. The BSA simplified that as their motto of “Be Prepared”.
During the past weeks every time I turn a page or click the mouse I see an article about next year’s wine business & predictions for 2010. Some are upbeat, many are neutral, but very few paint a dark image. No one likes to read doom & gloom. As a sales person I always tend to be upbeat & positive. I have read many industry surveys & reports. What frightens me about the analyses that I have read is that no one mentions the consumer. If I remember, it’s not the wineries, the distributors, or the retailers that buy & consumes wine.
So why aren’t any of these analyses taking into consideration what is & will be happening to the consumer? I may have a leg up on the average wine blogger. Having come from the real estate business I see reports that the average American does not.
Last week the Mortgage News Daily reported that according to the Mortgage Bankers Association 3.85% of “all” homes in the U.S. were in foreclosure, worse (according to Bloomberg) there are 21.9% of “all” homes here that are at least 90 days late on their mortgage payments. Most experts are saying that unemployment (which is high at 9.7%) is predicted to climb in 2010. What scares me is that no one is talking about Alt “A” loans. Issued primarily between 2005 & 2007, many were 30 year mortgages with 5 year adjustable ARMs with teaser rates that will start adjusting next year. In 2006, approximately $386 billion of mortgages were loaned out as Alt “A” loans. I heard a speech by a financial expert last year who claimed that 2/3 of all loans made in California (2005-2007) were Alt “A” loans.
I’m sorry but I left my crystal ball in another room so I won’t dare make a prediction about anything that is happening next year besides that we will find a way to get through it, but I would like to suggest that everyone who reads this blog adopt the Boy Scout motto – “Be Prepared”
Planned for the best, prepared for the worst, & tried with every ounce of energy to have your business succeed. Best wishes to all from a friend who cares.
CASE IN POINT- I had finished writing this blog late Friday but decided to wait to post it. On Saturday I opened an alert showing an article just published in the Napa Valley Register (.com) entitled “Economy turning the corner”. I am assuming that the journalist who wrote the piece was reporting accurately since I was not there. On Friday, about 150 local businesspeople attended the 2010 Napa County Economic Outlook. According to the journalist, 6 speakers offered advice from economic overviews & careful predictions to practical advice for small business owners. The tenor of the article seemed mostly upbeat with some caution. Only Carol Collison, VP of Global Wine Partners, acknowledged deep difficulties in the wine business but saw a turnaround coming, as well. It is troubling that the article didn’t point out one fact that was presented that backed up the claim of a turnaround?
Next to the article were related pieces. 2 separate articles were shown for a local winery in foreclosure, a piece declaring it time for local stimulus, an article on the fact that Napa & the state of California were at record highs for unemployment, & a piece on the soft Napa rental market. Does anyone else see a contradiction?
CASE IN POINT 2 – RISMedia 9/29/09 reported on a conference of top real estate & economic experts that they felt that there was more economic trouble on the horizon and that for the housing market “the second half of 2010 will be very weak and 2011 will be very grim”.
Get tough, get determined, make certain that your 2010 plan is sound, work your plan, but don’t get taken in that the future will be easy.
During the past weeks every time I turn a page or click the mouse I see an article about next year’s wine business & predictions for 2010. Some are upbeat, many are neutral, but very few paint a dark image. No one likes to read doom & gloom. As a sales person I always tend to be upbeat & positive. I have read many industry surveys & reports. What frightens me about the analyses that I have read is that no one mentions the consumer. If I remember, it’s not the wineries, the distributors, or the retailers that buy & consumes wine.
So why aren’t any of these analyses taking into consideration what is & will be happening to the consumer? I may have a leg up on the average wine blogger. Having come from the real estate business I see reports that the average American does not.
Last week the Mortgage News Daily reported that according to the Mortgage Bankers Association 3.85% of “all” homes in the U.S. were in foreclosure, worse (according to Bloomberg) there are 21.9% of “all” homes here that are at least 90 days late on their mortgage payments. Most experts are saying that unemployment (which is high at 9.7%) is predicted to climb in 2010. What scares me is that no one is talking about Alt “A” loans. Issued primarily between 2005 & 2007, many were 30 year mortgages with 5 year adjustable ARMs with teaser rates that will start adjusting next year. In 2006, approximately $386 billion of mortgages were loaned out as Alt “A” loans. I heard a speech by a financial expert last year who claimed that 2/3 of all loans made in California (2005-2007) were Alt “A” loans.
I’m sorry but I left my crystal ball in another room so I won’t dare make a prediction about anything that is happening next year besides that we will find a way to get through it, but I would like to suggest that everyone who reads this blog adopt the Boy Scout motto – “Be Prepared”
Planned for the best, prepared for the worst, & tried with every ounce of energy to have your business succeed. Best wishes to all from a friend who cares.
CASE IN POINT- I had finished writing this blog late Friday but decided to wait to post it. On Saturday I opened an alert showing an article just published in the Napa Valley Register (.com) entitled “Economy turning the corner”. I am assuming that the journalist who wrote the piece was reporting accurately since I was not there. On Friday, about 150 local businesspeople attended the 2010 Napa County Economic Outlook. According to the journalist, 6 speakers offered advice from economic overviews & careful predictions to practical advice for small business owners. The tenor of the article seemed mostly upbeat with some caution. Only Carol Collison, VP of Global Wine Partners, acknowledged deep difficulties in the wine business but saw a turnaround coming, as well. It is troubling that the article didn’t point out one fact that was presented that backed up the claim of a turnaround?
Next to the article were related pieces. 2 separate articles were shown for a local winery in foreclosure, a piece declaring it time for local stimulus, an article on the fact that Napa & the state of California were at record highs for unemployment, & a piece on the soft Napa rental market. Does anyone else see a contradiction?
CASE IN POINT 2 – RISMedia 9/29/09 reported on a conference of top real estate & economic experts that they felt that there was more economic trouble on the horizon and that for the housing market “the second half of 2010 will be very weak and 2011 will be very grim”.
Get tough, get determined, make certain that your 2010 plan is sound, work your plan, but don’t get taken in that the future will be easy.
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